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J^ 8854 



Bureau of Mines Information Circular/1981 




Minerals and the Tokyo Round 
of the MTN 

By Daniel E. Sullivan 




UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR 



Information Circular 8854 

Minerals and the Tokyo Round 
of the MTN 

By Daniel E. Sullivan 




UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR 
James G. Watt, Secretary 
BUREAU OF MINES 




As the Nation's principal conservation agency, the Department of the Interior 
has responsibility for most of our nationally owned public lands and natural 
resources. This includes fostering the wisest use of our land and water re- 
sources, protecting our fish and wildlife, preserving the environmental and 
cultural values of our national parks and historical places, and providing for 
the enjoyment of life through outdoor recreation. The Department assesses 
our energy and mineral resources and works to assure that their development is 
in the best interests of all our people. The Department also has a major re- 
sponsibility for American Indian reservation communities and for people who 
live in Island Territories under U.S. administration. 



■Uc/ 



This publication has been cataloged as follows: 



Sullivan, Daniel E 

Minerals and the Tokyo Round of the MTN. 

(Information circular / Bureau of Mines ; 8854) 

Bibliography: p. 8 

Supt. of Docs, no.: I 28.27:8854- 

1. Mineral industries. 2. Tariff on minerals. 3- Nontariff trade bar* 
riers. 4. Mineral industries— United States. 5. Tokyo Round (1973*1977). 
I. Title. II. Series: Information circular (United States. Bureau of Mines 

; 8854). 



TN295.U4 [HD9506,.A2]622s[382'.42] 81-607909 AACR2 



I 



For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office 
Washington. D.C. 20402 



CONTENTS 



Page 



Abstract 

Introduction — 

Acknowledgment 

The Multilateral Trade Negotiations 

History and procedure 

Previous agreements 

Tokyo Round 2 

Trade Act of 1974 2 

Negotiations 2 

Ratification 2 

Results 2 

Industrial tariffs 2 

Nontariff agreements 3 

Subsidies 3 

Antidumping 4 

Standards 4 

Customs valuation 4 

Government procurement 4 

Licensing 5 

Aircraft 5 

Agriculture 5 

GATT reform 5 

How the mineral industry may be affected 5 

Tariffs 5 

Situation prior to the MTN 5 

Changes as a result of the Negotiation 6 

Assessment 6 

Nontariff agreements 6 

Agreements that may affect the minerals sector 6 

Changes in the minerals sector that may occur as a result of these 

agreements 6 

Conclusions and recommendations 7 

Bibliography 8 

Appendix. — Post-MTN tariff rates for selected mineral commodities 9 

TABLE 

1 . Average tariff reductions by selected countries on mineral commodities purchased 

from the United States 3 



MINERALS AND THE TOKYO ROUND OF THE MTN 

by 
Daniel E. Suilivan^ 



ABSTRACT 



This Bureau of Mines publication examines the potential impact on minerals of the tariff and 
nontariff agreements that resulted from the Tokyo Round of the Multilateral Trade Negotiations, 
which were conducted under the auspices of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. These 
agreements will affect minerals by reducing tariff levels and by changing rules by which they are 
traded internationally. 



INTRODUCTION 



World trade plays a significant role in the production, supply, and demand functions of the mineral 
industry. The changes resulting from the recent trade negotiations will have significant impacts on 
conditions in the mineral industry. It is vital that these impacts be considered by both Government 
and industry in their decisionmaking processes. The effects of these changes will be felt over time. 
Presently it is possible only to roughly estimate their nature and significance. This study was un- 
dertaken by the Bureau of Mines as part of its responsibility to aid Government decisionmaking in 
the area of trade policy and to improve the ability of industry to adjust to the changes that will occur 
in trade practices. 

ACKNOWLEDGMENT 

Howard K. Andersen, formerly Department of the Interior representative on the Trade Policy Staff 
Committtee, provided invaluable information and advice in the preparation of this report. 

THE MULTILATERAL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS (MTN) 



HISTORY AND PROCEDURE 

The Tokyo Round of the Multilateral Trade Negotiations 
(MTN) was concluded during 1979, after more than 4 years 
of negotiating. This was the seventh round of intergovern- 
mental tariff talks to be conducted under the auspices of the 
General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) since it was 
established in 1947. 

Previous Agreements 

GATT, which became effective on January 1, 1948, pro- 
vided a means by which trading nations could bargain in a 



' Economist, Division of Minerals Availability, Bureau of twines, Denver, Colo. 



common forum with other participating countries. The re- 
sulting concessions granted to one country are then given 
Most-Favored-Nation treatment (MFN), which means that they 
are granted to all members. The result was a great improve- 
ment over the previous country-by-country trade negotiations, 
which were extremely time consuming. 

GATT was founded as part of an effort to recover from the 
economic situation after World War II. It has grown, from an 
original membership of 23, to 84 members, with 3 provisional 
members. Twenty-four additional countries that had been under 
GATT as dependent territories and now are independent states 
maintain a de facto application of the GATT. There have been 
six previous rounds of trade negotiations, three dealing with 
accession or provisional accession only, and three mainly 
concentrating on tariff reductions. The Dillon Round in the 
early sixties and the Kennedy Round in the middle sixties, 
the fifth and sixth respectively, were concerned mainly with 



tariff reductions. The Tokyo Round also dealt with tariff re- 
ductions, but much more emphasis was put on the reduction 
of nontariff trade barriers. 



Tokyo Round 

The Tokyo Round was opened in September 1973 at a 
Meeting of Ministers in Tokyo. This meeting came about as 
a result of two similar declarations agreed upon in February 
1972, one by the United States and the Commission of the 
European Economic Community (EEC) and the other by the 
United States and Japan. Each signatory agreed, subject to 
any internal authorization required, to initiate and support 
multilateral negotiations in the framework of GATT. The re- 
sulting meeting of GATT Ministers issued a declaration re- 
ferred to as the Tokyo Declaration. It declared the multilateral 
trade negotiations officially open. It stated the aims of the 
negotiations. Included in these aims were the expansion and 
continued liberalization of world trade, an improvement in 
economic well-being worldwide, and an increase in the ben- 
efits of international trade received by developing countries. 
It outlined the efforts to solve in an equitable way the trade 
problems of all participating countries, with special consid- 
eration being given the problems of developing countries. 
Among the efforts listed were (1) conducting tariff negotia- 
tions with a formula applied as generally as possible; (2) 
reducing nontariff trade barriers, where possible, and where 
this is not possible, lessening their restricting or distorting 
effects and bringing them under more effective international 
discipline: (3) examining the sectoral approach; (4) examining 
the adequacy of the safeguard system; (5) taking account of 
the special characteristics and problems involved in negoti- 
ating the agricultural sector; and (6) treating tropical products 
as a special and priority sector. 

Eventually 99 countries, 70 of them full GATT members, 
became involved in the negotiations. All of the industrialized 
countries pledged their full support to the Tokyo Round of 
trade negotiations. 



Trade Act Of 1974 



The United States, which had helped to initiate the Tokyo 
Round, did not have negotiating authority until the Trade Act 
of 1 974 became law in January 1 975. The actual negotiations 
formally began in Geneva in February 1975. The Trade Act 
authorized the President to (1) negotiate duty reductions; (2) 
enter agreements for the reduction, elimination, or harmo- 
nization of nontariff barriers (NTB); (3) seek agreements to 
ensure access to supplies; (4) negotiate improvements in 
certain aspects of GATT; (5) take relief measures in case of 
injuries to domestic producers by imports; and (6) implement 
a generalized system of preferences (GSP) to benefit de- 
veloping countries. The U.S. objectives in the negotiations 
were to facilitate the expansion of U.S. exports, stabilize re- 
lations with other industrialized countries, improve relations 
between industrialized and developing countries, and reduce 
abrasive trade problems with other countries. 



Negotiations 

The pace of the negotiations depended on international 
political and economic conditions and the speed of the in- 
ternal decisionmaking processes of participating countries. 
Initially, it was quite slow. It quickened substantially during 
1977 and 1978. In May 1977, the leaders of seven indus- 
trialized nations promised to put new impetus into the ne- 
gotiations. As a result, a tariff plan and a procedure for dealing 
with nontariff measures were developed. In early 1978, the 
major participants presented their detailed offers of possible 
tariff and nontariff concessions, and it was agreed to attempt 
to have a final package for political approval in time for an 
economic summit meeting scheduled to take place in July. 
This dramatically increased the pace of the negotiations. To- 
ward the end of June, it became apparent that a final package 
could not be agreed upon in time for the July meeting and it * 
was decided to adopt a framework of understanding setting 
forth the areas of agreement and those still to be resolved. 
At the July meeting it was agreed to pursue the resolution of 
the outstanding issues and to conclude the detailed negoti- 
ations by December 15, 1978. 

In October, the Congress was unable to pass legislation 
extending the January 3, 1 979, expiration date of the authority 
to waive imposition of countervailing duties that had been 
necessary for the cooperation of certain other countries in 
the negotiations. This delayed the negotiations because sev- 
eral key countries expressed reservations about continuing 
to negotiate under threat of the application of countervailing 
duties. 

The United States attempted to assure its negotiating part- 
ners that it would take measures to avoid the disruption of 
normal trade flows and promptly introduced legislation grant- 
ing authority to the President to waive countervailing duties 
when Congress reconvened in January 1979. This legislation 
passed in late March 1979. On April 12, 1979, an agreement 
was approved that indicated that the negotiations had been 
completed on most elements and that those signing agreed 
to submit the results to their respective authorities for ap- 
proval. 

Ratification 

The congressional ratification process was subject to rules 
established in advance. These rules required that the trade 
package be approved or rejected as a whole without amend- 
ment. In-depth consultations between the Executive Branch 
and Congress were necessary to insure that the trade pack- 
age was satisfactory to all before it came to a vote. Late in 
July 1979, the trade package was ratified and the Trade 
Agreements Act of 1979 resulted. 

RESULTS 

Industrial Tariffs 

The reductions in tariffs, which are being implemented by 
the major industrialized countries, in general are to be phased 



in over an 8-year period that started on January 1, 1980. 
Developing countries, witii some exceptions, will not be re- 
ducing tariffs. It is difficult to measure the significance of tariff 
reductions because it is not possible to correctly assess the 
volume of trade that will be generated by the new duties. In 
the negotiation process the past volume of trade had been 
used in weighing the significance of a particular tariff cut. Two 
methods have been used to calculate the average level of 
tariffs. The first is the simple arithmetic average of duty rates. 
This does not reflect the relative importance of each duty in 
terms of trade volume affected. An atypical duty rate on a 
minor trade volume will have the same impact on the average 
as a duty on a high-volume import. The second methodology 
takes the trade volume into account. It is the weighted av- 
erage of duties based on the level of imports affected by each 
duty. This gives a measure of the average duty collection. 
These methodologies have been used to make preliminary 
estimates of the reduction in the level of duties for selected 
developed markets. They show that the level of duties as 
measured by trade volume has been reduced 33 percent; as 
measured by a simple average it has been reduced 38 per- 
cent. 

Unless otherwise noted all averages discussed will be trade- 
weighted. The average U.S. tariff on all industrial imports 
(dutiable plus duty free, excluding petroleum) will decline from 

6.1 to 4.2 percent (a cut of 32 percent). The European Com- 
munity tariffs will be cut 27 percent (from 6.3 to 4.6 percent). 
Since the Kennedy Round, both Canada and Japan have 
made certain nonbinding tariff reductions. As a result, their 
applied tariff rates were lower than GATT-bound rates (the 
rates they were allowed to charge under the GATT). For 
Canada the reduction was 38 percent on GATT rates (from 
12.0 to 7.4 percent) and 32 percent on their applied rates 
(from 10.1 to 6.9 percent). For Japan, the reduction in their 
GATT rates was 50 percent (from 5.0 percent to 2.5 percent) 
and the reduction in their applied rates was 28 percent (from 

3.2 to 2.3 percent). 

These figures show the average reduction in all the tariffs 
of a country, but they do not show how the tariff reductions 
affect bilateral trade. The U.S. tariffs on industrial goods im- 
ported from the European Community were reduced an av- 
erage of 35 percent; those of the European Community on 
industrial goods imported from the United States were re- 



duced 34 percent. U.S. tariffs on Japanese industrial trade 
were reduced 32 percent as Japanese tariffs (applied rates) 
on U.S. industrial products were reduced 47 percent, and the 
United States reduced tariffs on Canadian industrial products 
45 percent as Canada reduced tariffs (applied rates) on U.S. 
industrial products 35 percent. 

The United States cut the average rate for all ferrous metal 
products 26 percent (from 4.6 to 3.4 percent); for all nonfer- 
rous metal products the cut was 43 percent (from 1 .6 to 0.9 
percent); for all stone, clay, and glass products, 36 percent 
(from 6.2 to 4.0 percent); and for industrial chemicals and 
fertilizers, 35 percent (from 2.5 to 1.6 percent). The other 
major industrialized countries also made cuts in their tariffs 
on these products as shown in table 1 . 

The level of the U.S. tariff reductions varies among the 
different sectors of the economy and also among different 
mineral commodities. Some mineral commodities such as 
nickel, phosphate rock, bauxite, tin, crude sulfur, iron ore, pig 
iron, asbestos, chromium ores, cobalt ore, copper ore, tita- 
nium ores, manganese ores, and vanadium ores were duty- 
free prior to the Tokyo Round and are not affected. Other 
mineral commodities such as high-carbon ferrochrome, co- 
balt oxide and linoleate, fluorspar, lead ore, unwrought man- 
ganese metal, and vanadium compounds were exceptions. 
This means that they were withheld from the negotiating proc- 
ess by the United States, and no cuts are to be made in their 
tariff rates. The tariff rates for most mineral commodities are 
to be reduced over an 8-year period (appendix). The level of 
reduction reflects estimated sensitivity of domestic industry 
to imports, and the results of the negotiation process. 

Nontariff Agreements 

The nontariff agreements, discussed in general terms in 
the following, are not directed specifically at minerals, but at 
trading problems in general. Their impacts on minerals are 
discussed later. 

Subsidies 

The Subsidies and Countervailing Duties Code limits ex- 
port subsidy practices and places greater control on the use 



TABLE 1. — Average tariff reductions by selected countries on mineral 
commodities purchased from the United States, percent 



Purchaser 


Ferrous metals and 
products 


Nonferrous metals 
and products 


stone, clay, and 

glass 

products 


Industrial chemicals 
and fertilizers 


European Community 

Canada 

Applied' 

Japan 

Applied' 

Sweden 

Norway 

Finland 

Switzerland. 

Austria 


26 
37 
37 
58 
24 
21 
31 
16 
17 
23 


21 
38 
40 
54 
26 
21 
15 
32 
26 
44 


27 
37 
37 
48 
34 
17 
40 
5 
22 
50 


33 
45 
25 
41 
24 
69 
48 
42 
12 
43 



' Nonbinding tariff reductions. 

Source: Twenty-Fourth Annual Report of the President of the United States on the Trade Agreements Program, 1979. 



of countervailing duties. Export promotion subsidies have 
always been discouraged by the rules of GATT, although 
domestic subsidies have been allowed. It may be impossible 
to differentiate between domestic subsidies and export pro- 
motion subsidies. GATT rules require a subsidizing country 
to discuss the possibility of limiting a subsidy when it is de- 
termined to cause or threaten to cause injury to the interests 
of another country. Injured countries are permitted to impose 
countervailing duties on imports of products that are subsi- 
dized after determining that the imports are causing or threat- 
ening to cause material injury to their industries. 

In recent years an increased use of subsidies by Govern- 
ments to promote domestic social goals and the expansion 
of world trade have combined to increase the impact of do- 
mestic subsidies on other countries. This has caused pres- 
sure for changes in the international rules dealing with subsidies 
and countervailing duties. The new code is intended to im- 
prove international policy on subsidies. It permits subsidies 
for domestic social and economic policies, but countries are 
committed to take into account conditions of world trade and 
production in fashioning their subsidy practices. Counter- 
vailing duties are allowed only if subsidies cause or threaten 
to cause "material injury" to domestic industry. In the past 
the United States did not require a determination of injury. 
The definition of "material injury" has been difficult to deter- 
mine. The U.S. implementing legislation defines "material 
injury" as "harm which is not inconsequential, immaterial, or 
unimportant." What this will mean in practice is yet to be 
determined. This is not expected to have an immediate impact 
on the United States because the United States has waived 
most countervailing duties for the past few years. 

Antidumping 

The new antidumping code also allows duties to be im- 
posed in the event of injury due to dumping. Dumping is the 
selling of products in foreign markets at a lower price than is 
charged for the same good in the domestic market. The ef- 
fects of dumping can be the same as a subsidy. 

Standards 

The Standards Code, or the Code of Conduct for Pre- 
venting Technical Barriers to Trade, is designed to discour- 
age discriminatory manipulations of product standards, testing, 
and certification systems. Standards can be used as technical 
barriers to trade. Governments have a right to protect con- 
sumers by establishing reasonable standards that all prod- 
ucts must meet. However, standards have been used to protect 
a domestic market from imports. This can be done through 
imposing standards that do not appear to benefit consumers, 
or through the administration of the standards in ways that 
are time consuming and duplicative or emphasize minor de- 
tails. Countries that sign this code agree that standards are 
not to be adopted or applied with the intention of creating 
barriers to trade and that imported goods should be subject 
to the same standards as domestic goods. Countries are to 
adopt international standards when possible and publish de- 
tails when their standards differ from international norms. 
They should also provide a point of inquiry where questions 
can be dealt with efficiently. The effect of this code will be 



felt in the long run. The United States could benefit if it results 
in a decrease in the number of technical barriers to trade 
since the United States is a major exporter of technically 
sophisticated items that are particularly vulnerable to these 
barriers. 

Customs Valuation 

The customs valuation system is the method of establishing 
the value of imported goods for the assessment of customs 
duties. The Customs Valuation Agreement is an attempt to 
insure that the methods used are fair and simple and conform 
to commercial reality and that traders will be able to know in 
advance the level of duty they will be obligated to pay. Cus- 
toms valuation can be used to inflate a tariff to a higher level 
than is implied by the nominal rate. U.S. exporters have com- 
plained that foreign customs officials sometimes arbitrarily 
inflate the value of U.S. products, resulting in higher duties. 
Foreign exporters have criticized U.S. customs valuation 
methods. The United States uses nine different methods which 
they allege are not applied uniformly. One of these, the 
American Selling Price (ASP) method, is usually said to be 
unfair. Using this method, certain selected goods are valued 
at the price of similar goods produced in the United States 
rather than on the basis of their export value. The new Cus- 
toms Valuation Agreement establishes the "transactions value" 
as the primary method for valuing imports. It also defines four 
alternative methods to be used if the primary method is not 
applicable. The United States will no longer use the ASP 
valuation method, but those goods that were valued this way 
have had their tariffs adjusted upward so that the level of 
protection remains unchanged. This code may clarify and 
simplify customs valuation procedures, but because duties 
affected will be adjusted there will probably be no near-term 
changes in trade flows. 

Government Procurement 

The Government Procurement Code is intended to dis- 
courage discrimination against foreign suppliers when Gov- 
ernments purchase articles for their own use. In the past the 
GATT specifically exempted Government procurement from 
the general provisions of the agreement. Governments had 
been free to discriminate against foreign products in their 
procurement decisions. Due to the growth in Government 
spending and Government enterprise in recent years, there 
has been growing pressure to negotiate agreements that will 
reduce the discrimination against the procurement of foreign 
products. This pressure has been especially strong in the 
United States because foreign governments play greater roles 
in their economies and it is felt in the United States that 
discrimination in Government procurement has a greater im- 
pact on U.S. exporters than on foreigners exporting to the 
United States. This feeling is reinforced because the United 
States often has a comparative advantage in the types of 
goods that are purchased by Governments, for example, 
electronic, communication, and transportation equipment. 

The procurement code specifies that the treatment of prod- 
ucts from a signatory country be no less favorable than that 
afforded to domestic products or those of any other country. 
Excluded from these provisions are contracts valued at less 



than about $1 90,000 and procurement of military and certain 
related goods. Studies have been done to determine the 
impact of this code (1,3)^. They show a positive impact on 
the U.S. economy but do not agree on the magnitude of this 
impact. 

Licensing 

The Import Licensing Code deals with the administration 
of import licensing procedures. Licensing of imports as a 
means of controlling the use of scarce foreign exchange is 
practiced by many countries. Import licenses sometimes have 
been administered arbitrarily or used as a means of discrim- 
inating against imports of particular countries. There has been 
much criticism of arbitrarily denying applications or unrea- 
sonable delays in the granting of licenses. The new code 
requires that procedures be applied in a nondiscriminatory 
manner to the products from all signatory countries. It also 
requires that procedures be as simple, open, and transparent 
as possible, and that applications not be rejected because 
of minor errors. This code is not expected to have a major 
short-term impact on U.S. trade. 

Aircraft 

This agreement eliminates all tariffs on nonmilitary aircraft, 
engines, aircraft parts, and flight simulators. It also involves 
agreements to reduce the possibility of subsidies and dis- 
crimination in purchases. The United States is the world's 
primary producer of civil aircraft, so it should benefit from this 
agreement. 

Agricuiture 

The Agriculture Agreements, which involve both tariff and 
nontariff agreements, will benefit the United States as a major 
exporter of agricultural products, but will not affect minerals. 



^ Underlined numbers in parentheses refer to items in the bibliography pre- 
ceding the appendix. 



GATT Reform 

The reform of the GATT framework consists of a set of four 
texts and an agreement to reassess GATT rules on export 
controls following the MTN. The first text is titled "Discussion 
on Differential and IVIore Favorable Treatment and Reciproc- 
ity and Fuller Participation of Developing Countries." It in- 
corporates the "enabling clause" which provides a legal 
framework within the GATT for differential and more favorable 
treatment for developing countries. This covers special ar- 
rangements such as the Generalized System of Preferences 
(GSP) and other differential treatment with respect to provi- 
sions of the GATT. This first text also incorporates "reci- 
procity" and "graduation" clauses by which it is agreed that 
developed countries do not expect full reciprocity from de- 
veloping countries for commitments made to developing 
countries by developed countries in future trade negotiations, 
but developing countries agree to accept greater obligations 
under the GATT as their economic situations improve (grad- 
uation). 

The second text is titled "Declaration on Trade f^easures 
for Balance-of-Payments Purposes." It provides the frame- 
work for such measures. It also emphasizes that such meas- 
ures are inefficient means for dealing with the problems and 
developed countries should avoid their use. The third text is 
titled "Decision on Safeguard Action for Development Pur- 
poses." It recognizes that safeguard action may be necessary 
to improve the situation of infant industries in developing 
countries and outlines procedures for such actions under 
GATT. Safeguard action would be a temporary restriction of 
imports in the case of serious injury. The fourth text is titled 
"Understanding Regarding Notification, Consultation, Dis- 
pute Settlement and Surveillance." This text represents a 
tightening up of the existing GATT procedures for consulta- 
tion and the resolution of disputes. An agreement reassessing 
the GATT rules on export controls was not reached owing to 
the resistance of developing countries and some developed 
countries to address the issue, but it was agreed to address 
the issue following the MTN. 



HOW THE MINERAL INDUSTRY MAY BE AFFECTED 



TARIFFS 



Situation Prior to tlie IMTN 

Tariffs on most minerals were already at relatively low lev- 
els owing to previous negotiations and the impact of inflation 
on specific rates that are in specific dollar terms. (This alone 
does not mean these tariffs are not significant, as will be 
discussed later.) The average U.S. tariff rate for all dutiable 
and duty-free industrial imports excluding petroleum was 6.1 



percent. For ferrous metals and products the average rate 
was 4.6 percent; nonferrous metals and products 1 .6 percent; 
stone, clay, and glass products 6.2 percent; and industhal 
chemicals and fertilizers 2.5 percent. Of these mineral prod- 
ucts, only stone, clay, and glass products had an average 
rate higher than the overall industrial average and this is only 
one-tenth of a percentage point higher. The others were from 
1.5 to 4.5 percentage points below the overall industrial av- 
erage. The original tariff rates for individual mineral com- 
modities ranged from more than 20 percent ad valorem to 
free, as is shown in the appendix. The average mineral tariff 
rates of most other industrialized countries followed similar 
patterns. 



Changes as a Result of the Negotiation 

As a result of the Tokyo Round of the MTN, tariff rates are 
due to be reduced for most commodities. These reductions 
generally are to be staged over an S-year period. The average 
rate for all dutiable and duty-free commodities, excluding 
petroleum, is to be cut 32 percent. The average tariff rates 
for nonferrous metals and products, stone, clay, and glass 
products, and industrial chemicals and fertilizers are all to be 
cut by a greater percentage than the overall average. Ferrous 
metals and products are to be cut 26 percent. When these 
reductions are completed, none of these categories of mineral 
products will have an average tariff greater than the overall 
industrial average. The tariff reductions, including staging, for 
selected mineral products are shown in the appendix. 

Assessment 

The impact of the U.S. tariff reductions on the domestic 
mineral sector should not be great. The reductions for most 
commodities will be staged over an 8-year period. The com- 
modities whose tariffs are to be reduced were determined to 
be less sensitive to imports after careful examination. The 
level of tariffs on mineral commodities was already low, al- 
though a low tariff can be highly protective if the demand for 
the commodity is price elastic. Demand is price elastic if a 
given percentage increase in price results in a greater per- 
centage reduction in the quantity demand and a given per- 
centage decrease in price results in a greater percentage 
increase in the quantity demanded. Demand is price inelastic 
when a percentage change in price results in a smaller change 
in the quality demanded. The fact that other countries are 
also making reductions in their tariffs on mineral commodities 
will reduce the possibility of negative impact on the U.S. 
industry. A study (1) by the Department of Labor on the trade 
and employment effects of the tariff reductions in the Tokyo 
Round indicates an overall increase of 30,000 job opportun- 
ities as a result of an increase in net exports of $100 million. 
This is a net result of an estimated increase of 167,000 job 
opportunities due to a $3,300 million increase in exports and 
a decrease of 137,000 job opportunities due to a $2,300 
million increase in imports. For the mining industry as a whole 
it is estimated that there will be a net increase of 300 job 
opportunities as a result of an increase in net exports of $5 
million. This net result is based on an increase of 1 ,900 job 
opportunities as a result of increased exports of $1 1 milllion 
and a decrease of 1 ,600 job opportunities related to increased 
imports of $6 million. 

Within the extractive industry, iron and ferroalloy ores are 
expected to increase net exports by $1 ,861 ,000 but decrease 
21 job opportunities owing to more jobs related to a smaller 
increase in imports. The nonferrous metal ore industry will 
do the opposite: net exports will be a net increase of 21 job 
opportunities: net exports will decline $615,000 but there will 
be a net increase of 21 job opportunities. Net exports for 
stone and clay mining will increase $1,015,000 and job op- 
portunities will increase 36. Chemicals and fertilizer minerals 



exports will decline $2,446,000 and job opportunities will de- 
crease by three. 

For the primary iron and steel industry, the study estimates 
a decline of $109 million in net exports, resulting in a loss of 
seven job opportunities. For nonferrous metals, the estimate 
is a decrease of $14 million in net exports but an increase 
of 637 job opportunities; for the stone and clay products in- 
dustries, a decline of $48 millon in net exports is estimated 
resulting in a loss of 1 ,865 job opportunities. Chemicals are 
expected to increase net exports by $85 million, resulting in 
a gain of 1 ,361 job opportunities. Since the reductions are to 
be staged over an 8-year period, these estimated impacts 
are also for an 8-year period. 

A study done for the Subcommittee on International Trade 
of the Senate Committee on Finance (3) estimates an in- 
crease in overall employment as a result of the tariff cuts of 
about 2,300 workers, including for the basic iron and steel 
industry, an increase of 1,200 workers; for the basic nonfer- 
rous metals industry, an increase of 400 workers; for pottery 
and other nonmetallic minerals, a decline of 1 ,400 workers; 
for glass and glass products an increase of 100 workers; and 
for chemicals an increase of 3,500 workers. 

These estimates vary from those of the Department of 
Labor study owing to the use of different definitions and meth- 
odologies; however, these studies give the general impres- 
sion that the metals industries will not be adversely affected 
by the tariff cuts, the chemical industry will benefit, and the 
nonmetallic minerals industry may suffer some adverse im- 
pact. 

NONTARIFF AGREEMENTS 

Agreements That May Affect the IMinerals 
Sector 

All of the nontariff agreements, with the exception of the 
agriculture agreements, will have an impact on the minerals 
sector. None are specifically minerals agreements, but they 
deal with problems that can have significant effects on the 
minerals sector such as subsidies, dumping, standards, cus- 
toms valuation, Government procurement, licensing, and civil 
aircraft. 



Changes in the Minerals Sector That May 
Occur as a Result of These Agreements 

The subsidies and countervailing duties agreement is not 
expected to have an immediate impact on the U.S. mineral 
industry because, although the existing U.S. law did not have 
an injury test, the United States waived most countervailing 
duties during the MTN. In the long run, improving international 
policy on subsidies will be beneficial to the mineral sector. 
Limiting subsidy practices will lessen the chance of an ov- 
ersupply situation in the world market caused by continued 
production when demand, as reflected in market prices, does 
not warrant it. The mineral sector will be protected from sub- 
sidized competition. The code will create an opportunity to 
streamline U.S. investigation procedures, and this may im- 
prove the protection against unfair trade practices. The pro- 



tection sanctioned by the Antidumping Code will benefit the 
mineral sector in the event of dumping in the same manner 
as the protection sanctioned by the Subsidies Code benefits 
the mineral sector in the event of export subsidies. 

The Government Procurement Code and the Civil Aircraft 
Agreement will open markets for U.S. mineral products. For- 
eign Government purchases are growing, and this agreement 
makes it easier for the U.S. mineral sector to participate in 
these expanding markets. The Civil Aircraft Agreement im- 
proves the ability of the U.S. aircraft industry to sell in the 
world market and increases the demand for those minerals 
needed in the manufacture of aircraft. 

The Customs Valuation Agreement, the Import Licensing 
Code, and the Standards Code all are designed to improve 
the flow of goods in world trade. The benefits of this improve- 
ment will be shared by those who trade mineral commodities. 

The reform and updating of the GATT framework could 
affect mineral trade. The "enabling clause" provides a legal 



basis for preference systems for developing countries, such 
as GSP. The U.S. GSP system is not intended for import- 
sensitive industries, and there may be occasions when do- 
mestic mineral industry is affected by GSP imports. The "rec- 
iprocity clause" in which the developed countries agree that 
in future negotiations they will not seek concessions from 
developing countries that are inconsistent with their needs, 
and the "graduation clause" in which developing countries 
agree that when they progress economically they will partic- 
ipate more fully in the rights and obligations of the trading 
system, could affect the flow of minerals between developed 
and developing countries in the short and long term. The 
safeguard provisions for development and for balance of pay- 
ments purposes could also affect mineral trade. The text on 
dispute settlement should improve the handling of trade dis- 
putes in the GATT. The agreement to reassess the rules on 
export controls after the MTN could have a great impact on 
the supply access of minerals. 



CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 



The Tokyo Round of the MTN has been concluded suc- 
cessfully. It was the seventh round held under the auspices 
of the GATT since 1948 and the first one to emphasize non- 
tariff agreements along with tariff reductions. 

The tariff reductions of the Tokyo Round are significant for 
the economy as a whole. The trade-weighted average of 
duties for selected developed markets will be reduced 33 
percent. The impact of the tariff reductions on the mineral 
sector should not be large. This is because the level of tariffs 
on mineral commodities was already low, and for most com- 
modities, the reductions will be staged over an 8-year period. 
Also, other developed countries will make similar reductions 
in their mineral tariffs. 

The main emphasis of the Tokyo Round was the lessening 
of the trade-distorting effects of nontariff trade barriers. The 
results of this effort are the nontariff agreements. Their pur- 
pose is to promote a more open, fairer trading system. This 
can benefit the U.S. mineral sector both domestically and in 
exporting mineral commodities. Domestically the agreements 
can lessen the possibility of being harmed by imports that 
are the beneficiaries of unfair trade practices. In the export 
market the elimination of nontariff trade barriers (NTB's) will 
put U.S. mineral exports in a more equitable position. 



Not all goals were achieved in these negotiations. Reas- 
sessment of the rules on export controls, which could have 
a great impact on the supply access of minerals, will be taken 
up following the MTN. Another negotiation that was not com- 
pleted included a safeguard agreement that would permit a 
country to take emergency action to temporarily restrict im- 
ports in case of serious injury. 

Although the Tokyo Round has been concluded, trade 
matters continue to require close attention and consultations. 
The final trade package is the result of compromise in which 
each side achieved only part of what it wanted. The ideal of 
a fair and open trading system requires continual surveillance 
for disruptions and responses that minimize their impact. 

Actions that can improve trade, and mineral trade in par- 
ticular, should be taken. These actions include efforts to see 
that agreements that have been negotiated are put into effect 
in the way intended. Efforts also should be made to complete 
negotiations of agreements that were incomplete at the close 
of the MTN, such as export controls, and safeguards. Areas 
where agreements may be needed in the future should be 
explored. The impact of changes in the tariff levels stemming 
from the Tokyo Round should be monitored to determine 
where adjustments may be needed. 



BIBLIOGRAPHY 



1. Bayard T., and J. Orr. Trade and Employment Effects of the 
Tariff Reductions Agreed to in the MTN. U.S. Department of Labor, 
Bureau of International Labor Affairs, June 15, 1979, 61 pp. 

2. Business Week World Trade. How the U.S. Scored on Trade. 
May 7, 1979, pp. 34-35. 

3. Deardorff, A.V., and R.M. Stern. An Economic Analysis of the 
Effects of the Tokyo Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations of the 
United States and the Other Major Industrialized Countries. MTN 
Studies No. 5, A Report Prepared at the Request of the Subcom- 
mittee on International Trade of the Senate Committee on Finance. 
June 1979, 215 pp. 

4. Federal Register. Proclamation To Carry Out the Geneva (1979) 
Protocol to the General Agreement of Tariffs and Trade and for Other 
Purposes. V. 44, No. 241, Dec. 13, 1979, pp. 72348-72563. 

5 Memorandum of December 14, 1979. Determination 

Regarding the Multilateral Trade Negotiations. V. 44 No. 244, pp. 
74781 -74784. 

6. GATT. Geneva (1979) Protocol to the General Agreements on 
Tariffs and Trade. Schedule XX. U.S.A. Geneva, June 1979, 727 pp. 

7 Report by the Director-General of GATT. The Tokyo 

Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations. Geneva,. April 1979, 195 
PP- 



8.. 



_. Supplementary Report by the Director-General of GATT. 
The Tokyo Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations Volume II. Ge- 
neva, January 1980, 53 pp. 

9. Kelly, F.J. Minerals and the New Tariff Schedules of the United 
States. BuMines IC 8262, 1965, 154 pp. 

10. U.S. Bureau of Mines. Mineral Commodity Summaries, 1979. 
190 pp. 

12. Office of the United States Trade Representative. Summary 
of Proposed Nontariff Agreements. January 1979, 61 pp. 

13 "Twenty-Third Annual Report of the President of the 

United States on the Trade Agreements Program — 1978. 167 pp. 

14 "Twenty-Fourth Annual Report of the President of the 

United States on the Trade Agreements Program— 1 979. 191 pp. 

15. U.S. Congress. Trade Act of 1974. Public Law 93-618, Jan. 3, 
1974, 88 Stat. 1978. 

16 Trade Agreements Act of 1979. Public Law 96-39, July 

26, 1979, 93 Stat. 144. 

17. U.S. Congress, Congressional Budget Office. The Effects of 
the Tokyo Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations on the U.S. 
Economy: An Updated View. July 1979, 50 pp. 

18. U.S. Department of State. The Trade Debate. Department of 
State Publication 8942, May 1978, 29 pp. 



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